New IJF now accepts submissions exclusively via the Editorial Scholar portal — a dedicated submission & review system.
Go to Editorial Scholar →
Associated Management Consultants Pvt. Ltd. | COPE Member
Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE |
Indian Journal of Finance logo

Indian Journal of Finance

ISSN: 0973-8711 Frequency: Monthly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2007 Language: English
A publication of AMCPL
amcon.co.in
New Delhi, India
Indexed in: Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE Group II Google Scholar J-Gate NISCAIR Crossref

Original Article

Open Access Original Article

Arbitrage, Error Correction, and Causality: Case of Highly Traded Agricultural Commodities in India

Ruchika Kaura1,  Nawal Kishor2,  Namita Rajput3

1 Assistant Professor, Atma Ram Sanatan Dharma College, University of Delhi, Dhaula Kuan, New Delhi - 110 021

2 Professor, School of Management Studies, Indira Gandhi National Open University, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi - 110 068

3 Principal (OSD), Sri Aurobindo College (Evening), University of Delhi, Malviya Nagar, New Delhi - 110 017

Volume 13
Issue 9
Pages 7–21
Year 2019
Received: Aug. 20, 2018 Accepted: July 30, 2019 Published: Sept. 30, 2019
Abstract

India is an agriculture-dominated country and futures trading in commodities has emerged as a mode to protect the farmers and traders from price fluctuations and to relieve them from the trouble of maintaining stocks. However, mispricing between futures and spot markets of commodities has persisted from time to time due to market inefficiencies, which are taken care by rational investors and arbitrageurs present in the market. The study aimed to examine the speed, magnitude, and significance of error correction in the presence of arbitrage opportunities and the causality relationship between the spot and the futures markets of selected highly traded agricultural commodities namely, cardamom, cotton, crude palm oil, and mentha oil traded on the leading commodity exchange of India, that is, MCX. The results of vector error correction model provided empirical evidence that there existed significant error correction and causality between the futures and spot prices of selected agricultural commodities in India. Even though the futures and spot prices of these commodities were co-integrated in the long run, but in the short-run, there arose a disequilibrium resulting in exploitable arbitrage opportunities. Trading by the arbitrageurs in these markets leads to significant error correction, thereby bringing the markets into equilibrium again. Also, bi-directional causality between the markets was observed for all commodities with futures markets Granger causing spot markets more strongly. The knowledge of existence of arbitrage opportunities and information about the error correction is valuable for farmers, traders, and organizations occupied in producing, processing, and marketing of commodities to hedge their market risk and gain profits.

Keywords Agricultural Commodities Arbitrage Error Correction Causality Commodity Market VECM Granger Causality Test. JEL Codes
How to Cite

Ruchika Kaura, Nawal Kishor, Namita Rajput (2019). Arbitrage, Error Correction, and Causality: Case of Highly Traded Agricultural Commodities in India. Indian Journal of Finance, 13(9), 7–21. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2019/v13i9/147095

References
  1. Ali, J., & Bardhan Gupta, K. (2011). Efficiency in agricultural commodity futures markets in India: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests. Agricultural Finance Review, 71(2), 162-178. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1108/00021461111152555 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.1108/00021461111152555</a>
  2. Babu, M., & Srinivasan, S. (2014). Testing the co-integration in Indian commodity markets : A study with reference to Multi Commodity Exchange India Ltd. Indian Journal of Finance, 8(3), 35-43. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2014/v8i3/71961 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2014/v8i3/71961</a>
  3. Baldi, L., Peri, M., & Vandone, D. (2011). Price discovery in agricultural commodities: The shifting relationship between spot and futures prices. In EAAE 2011 Congress, Change and Uncertainty Challenges for Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland.
  4. Bose, S. (2007). Contribution of Indian index futures to price formation in the stock market. Money and Finance, 3(1), 39-56.
  5. Brailsford, T. J., & Cusack, A. J. (1997). A comparison of futures pricing models in a new market: The case of individual share futures. Journal of Futures Markets: Futures, Options, and Other Derivative Products, 17(5), 515-541.
  6. Bühler, W., & Kempf, A. (1995). DAX index futures: Mispricing and arbitrage in German markets. Journal of Futures Markets, 15(7), 833-859.
  7. Chauhan, A. K., Singh, S., & Arora, A. (2013). Market efficiency and volatility spillovers in futures and spot commodity market: The agricultural sector perspective. Samvad, 6(2), 61-84.
  8. Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, J. E., & Ross, S. A. (1981). The relation between forward prices and futures prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 9(4) 321-346.
  9. Easwaran, R. S., & Ramasundaram, P. (2008). Whether commodity futures market in agriculture is efficient in price discovery ?-An econometric analysis. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 21, 337-344.
  10. Gupta, S., Choudhary, H., & Agarwal, D. R. (2018). An empirical analysis of market efficiency and price discovery in Indian commodity market. Global Business Review, 19(3), 771-789. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0972150917713882 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0972150917713882</a>
  11. Hernandez, M., & Torero, M. (2010). Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and futures prices of agricultural commodities (IFPRI Discusssion Paper No. 00988). Retrieved from <a href=http://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/2258/filename/2259.pdf target="_blank">http://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/2258/filename/2259.pdf</a>
  12. Irfan, M., & Hooda, J. (2017). An empirical study of price discovery in commodities futures market. Indian Journal of Finance, 11(3), 41-57. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2017/v11i3/111648 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2017/v11i3/111648</a>
  13. Iyer, V., & Pillai, A. (2010). Price discovery and convergence in the Indian commodities market. Indian Growth and Development Review, 3(1), 53-61. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1108/17538251011035873 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.1108/17538251011035873</a>
  14. Mahalik, M. K., Acharya, D., & Babu, M. S. (2009). Price discovery and volatility spillovers in futures and spot commodity markets: Some empirical evidence from India (IGIDR Proceedings/Project Reports Series PP-062-10). Retrieved from <a href=http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/PP-062-10.pdf target="_blank">http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/PP-062-10.pdf</a>
  15. Merrick, J. J. (1988). Hedging with mispriced futures. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 23(4), 451-464. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2331083 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2331083</a>
  16. Narsimhulu, S., & Satyanarayana, S. V. (2016). Efficiency of commodity futures in price discovery and risk management : An empirical study of agricultural commodities in India. Indian Journal of Finance, 10 (10), 7-26. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2016/v10i10/102990 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2016/v10i10/102990</a>
  17. Neal, R. (1996). Direct tests of index arbitrage models. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 31(4), 541-562. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2331359 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2331359</a>
  18. Palamalai, S. (2012). Price discovery and volatility spillovers in Indian spot-futures commodity market. Retrieved from <a href=https://ssrn.com/abstract=2152867 target="_blank">https://ssrn.com/abstract=2152867</a>
  19. Sehgal, S., Rajput, N., & Dua, R. K. (2012). Price discovery in Indian agricultural commodity markets. International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 2(2), 34-54. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ijafr.v2i2.2224 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ijafr.v2i2.2224 </a>
  20. Sehgal, S., Rajput, N., & Deisting, F. (2013). Price discovery and volatility spillover : Evidence from Indian commodity markets. The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, 7(3), 57-75.
  21. Sendhil, R., Kar, A., Mathur, V. C., & Jha, G. K. (2013). Price discovery, transmission and volatility: Evidence from agricultural commodity futures. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 26(1), 41-54.
  22. Shakeel, M., & Purankar, S. (2014). Price discovery mechanism of spot and futures market in India : A case of selected agri-commodities. International Research Journal of Business and Management, 8(8), 50-61.
  23. Shanmugam, V. P., & Raghu, R. R. (2016). Relationship between spot and futures markets of selected agricultural commodities: An efficiency and causation analysis. Retrieved from <a href=https://ssrn.com/abstract=2995347 target="_blank">https://ssrn.com/abstract=2995347</a>
  24. Sharma, T. (2015). An empirical analysis of commodity future market in India. International Journal of Engineering Technology, Management and Applied Sciences, 3, 11-19.
  25. Soni, T. K., & Singla, H. K. (2013). A study of the efficiency and unbiasedness in NCDEX: A case study of Guar Gum. Indian Journal of Finance, 7(11), 28-37.
  26. Stoll, H. R., & Whaley, R. E. (1990). The dynamics of stock index and stock index futures returns. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 25(4), 441-468. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2331010 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2331010</a>
  27. Vasantha, G., & Mallikarjunappa, T. (2015). Lead-lag relationship and price discovery in Indian commodity derivatives and spot market: An example of pepper. The IUP Journal of Applied Finance, 21(1), 71-83.
  28. Vimal, S. (2015). Testing efficiency in agricultural commodity futures market in India using co integration and causality tests. Indian Journal of Finance, 9(12), 51-60. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/ 10.17010/ijf/2015/v9i12/84384 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2015/v9i12/84384</a>
  29. Zapata, H. O., Randall, F. T., & Armstrong, D. (2005). Price discovery in the world sugar futures and cash markets: Implications for the Domincan Republic (Staff Paper Series No. 469). Retrieved from <a href=https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/12657 target="_blank">https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/12657</a>
Editorial Scholar

Submit your Research to IJF

Submit your Manuscript → Author Guidelines