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Indian Journal of Finance

ISSN: 0973-8711 Frequency: Monthly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2007 Language: English
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Original Article

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Beyond Binary Decisions : Modeling the Frequency of Mergers and Acquisitions in the Indian IT Industry Using Count Data Models

Muhammadriyaj Faniband1,  Seema Singh2

1 Assistant Professor , Symbiosis Centre for Corporate Education, Pune, Symbiosis International (Deemed University), Pune - 411 016, Maharashtra.

2 Professor and Director, Symbiosis Centre for Corporate Education, Pune, Symbiosis International (Deemed University), Pune - 411 016, Maharashtra.

Volume 20
Issue 1
Pages 72–85
Year 2026
Received: Aug. 5, 2025 Accepted: Dec. 22, 2025 Published: Jan. 15, 2026
Abstract

Purpose: This paper investigated the impact of macroeconomic factors, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, GDP, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity of the Indian IT industry. Design/Methodology/Approach : This paper used the count data models, Poisson and Negative Binomial models, for a period ranging from 2007 to 2023.

Findings: We found several important findings: First, inflation showed no significant impact at any lag, while exchange rates had a significant and negative effect in the contemporary period and one lag, but lost significance after two lags. Second, GDP had a significant negative impact in both models, strongest at one lag, but lost significance in the Negative Binomial model at two lags. Third, interest rates had no significant effect on M&A for all periods. Fourth, EPU did not significantly affect the contemporary and one-lag periods but revealed a significant negative relationship in the two-lag period in the Poisson model. Practical

Implications: The findings offered valuable implications for policymakers, business leaders, and investors who are involved in or considering M&A activities in this dynamic industry. Originality/

Value: Despite comprehensive research on M&A decision-making, the literature lacked studies applying discrete outcome models like Poisson or Negative Binomial to model M&A activities, particularly in the Indian IT industry. Therefore, this research filled the methodological and contextual gap.

Keywords macroeconomic factors mergers acquisitions IT industry count data India
How to Cite

Muhammadriyaj Faniband, Seema Singh (2026). Beyond Binary Decisions : Modeling the Frequency of Mergers and Acquisitions in the Indian IT Industry Using Count Data Models. Indian Journal of Finance, 20(1), 72–85. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2026/v20i1/175222

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