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Indian Journal of Finance

ISSN: 0973-8711 Frequency: Monthly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2007 Language: English
A publication of AMCPL
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New Delhi, India
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Original Article

Open Access Original Article

Deep Learning in Financial Analytics : Exchange Rate Modelling

Sonali Agarwal1

1 University School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Sector-16-C, Dwarka, Delhi - 110 078

Volume 16
Issue 9
Pages 8–25
Year 2022
Received: June 25, 2021 Accepted: May 20, 2022 Published: Sept. 1, 2022
Abstract

In finance, a major enthralling research question has been the accurate determination of future market and economic movements. A lot of researchers have tried to develop different models with different accuracies of prediction over the years. It appears that the full potential of deep learning has not been explored to study FX rates. The current study, therefore, explored the proficiency of deep neural networks in predictive modeling. I tested different models of artificial neural networks (using hyperparameters’ tuning like training algorithms, number of hidden layers, and hidden nodes) using neural network input-output fitting and tried to find the best fit model. The model was also validated by layered digital dynamic time series modeling using autoregression with two delays. The appraisal metrics used were regression R - value, MSE, time-series response plot, and error autocorrelation plot. It was concluded that the artificial neural network with a single hidden layer having 17 nodes and trained using the Levenberg– Marquardt algorithm gave the best performance in a minimum number of iterations. This study marks an extensive examination of ANN modeling. This model can be used by traders, investors, financiers, economists, bankers, speculators, hedgers, and governments to get insights into future forex rates and thus make profitable decisions. Various trading policies, import-export policies, and pricing of commodities in indigenous markets can be managed precisely. Future studies can use these models in simulated trading and help establish an alliance between statistical significance and economic significance.

Keywords Forex Forecasting Predictive Modeling Deep Neural Network Input-Output Fitting Training Algorithm Hidden Layer Error Autocorrelation Back-Propagation Hyperparameter Incremental Training
How to Cite

Sonali Agarwal (2022). Deep Learning in Financial Analytics : Exchange Rate Modelling. Indian Journal of Finance, 16(9), 8–25. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2022/v16i9/172157

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