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Indian Journal of Finance

ISSN: 0973-8711 Frequency: Monthly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2007 Language: English
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Original Article

Subscription Original Article

Evolving Global Linkage : A Time-Varying Analysis of the Indian Stock Market

Bishal Routh1,  Joy Sarkar2,  Raju Paul3

1 Assistant Professor , Department of Commerce, Balarampur College, P.O.- Rangadih, Dist: Purulia - 723 143, West Bengal.

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Commerce, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur, Siliguri, Dist: Darjeeling - 734 013, West Bengal.

3 Senior Research Scholar, Department of Commerce, University of North Bengal, Raja Rammohunpur, Siliguri, Dist: Darjeeling - 734 013, West Bengal.

Volume 20
Issue 4
Pages 66–79
Year 2026
Received: Sept. 5, 2025 Accepted: March 29, 2026 Published: April 15, 2026
Abstract

Purpose: To address the time-varying integration of the Indian stock market and to understand the true nature of domestic returns and their alignment with the global market. If misaligned, what could be the causes?

Methodology: The International Capital Asset Pricing Model framework proposed by Levine and Zervos was used to estimate the Market Integration Index. The index was further extended to a time-varying parameter using the Kalman Filter.

Findings: Domestic returns consistently outperformed global returns. It was found that 60% of the return was aligned to domestic factors; thus, only 40% was sensitive to global factors. The Kalman filter showed that the Indian stock market was deviating from the global market between 2012 and 2025, with two rare instances of co-movement. Practical Implication : The positive and significant α0, together with β0 > 1, suggested the existence of a low-beta anomaly, implying that investors can earn higher returns at relatively lower risk, which enhances the attractiveness of the Indian stock market.

Originality: Numerous studies have investigated the integration of the Indian stock market with global markets; however, they have used fixed coefficient models, which did not capture the true dynamics of market integration, which is time-varying in nature. Hence, the Kalman filter, a state-space technique that allows parameters to vary across time, was used with the international capital asset pricing model to unveil the same. The study used the latest period from January 2012 to July 2025; hence, it would meet the needs of the current crop of investors.

Keywords Indian stock market global market integration segmentation Kalman filter time varying-integration Bekaert & Harvey ICAPM business risk liquidity risk
How to Cite

Bishal Routh, Joy Sarkar, Raju Paul (2026). Evolving Global Linkage : A Time-Varying Analysis of the Indian Stock Market. Indian Journal of Finance, 20(4), 66–79. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2026/v20i4/175481

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