New IJF now accepts submissions exclusively via the Editorial Scholar portal — a dedicated submission & review system.
Go to Editorial Scholar →
Associated Management Consultants Pvt. Ltd. | COPE Member
Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE |
Indian Journal of Finance logo

Indian Journal of Finance

ISSN: 0973-8711 Frequency: Monthly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2007 Language: English
A publication of AMCPL
amcon.co.in
New Delhi, India
Indexed in: Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE Group II Google Scholar J-Gate NISCAIR Crossref

Original Article

Open Access Original Article

Financial Contagion in European Equity Markets: Evidence from the US Subprime and the Eurozone Crises

Ashish Kumar1,  Swati Khanna2,  Sanjay Dhingra3,  Neena Sinha4

1 Assistant Professor, University School of Management Studies, Block D, Guru Govind Singh Indraprastha University, Sector 16 C, Dwarka, New Delhi - 110 078

2 Assistant Professor , IILM Institute of Higher Education, Lodhi Road, Lodhi Colony, New Delhi - 110 003

3 Professor, University School of Management Studies, Block D, Guru Govind Singh Indraprastha University, Sector 16 C, Dwarka, New Delhi - 110 078

4 Professor, University School of Management Studies, Block D, Guru Govind Singh Indraprastha University, Sector 16 C, Dwarka, New Delhi - 110 078

Volume 16
Issue 8
Pages 8–28
Year 2022
Received: Aug. 20, 2021 Accepted: March 15, 2022 Published: Aug. 1, 2022
Abstract

The study explored the financial contagion between the five European stock markets (Germany, Belgium, France, Netherlands, and Spain) and the impact of the US subprime crisis and Eurozone crisis on it by employing multivariate DCC-GARCH methodology. The dynamic conditional correlation coefficient between Germany and other European markets was statistically significant for the period under review. The rise in the value of the conditional correlation coefficient was more evident during the US subprime crisis period, which signified the impact of this crisis on the financial interdependence of the European stock markets. But not much influence of the Eurozone crisis was observed on the dispersion of returns for all the markets, which was an important finding. The mechanism of rolling regression also corroborated these results. The study also validated the presence of financial contagion between the stock markets (except the Netherlands) during the US subprime crisis period. In contrast, the effect of the Eurozone crisis on financial contagion was significant only for Spain and Belgium. Further, the strength of financial contagion was highest for the stock market of Spain, followed by Belgium, and the least for the Netherlands. The timid reaction of the stock market of the Netherlands reflected that it could be a good choice for portfolio diversification during periods of crisis for investors. Further, governments and other regulators can learn from these findings and formulate appropriate policies to absorb the financial shocks coming from foreign markets, especially during the crisis period.

Keywords Financial contagion financial crisis dynamic conditional correlation stock markets GARCH
How to Cite

Ashish Kumar, Swati Khanna, Sanjay Dhingra, Neena Sinha (2022). Financial Contagion in European Equity Markets: Evidence from the US Subprime and the Eurozone Crises. Indian Journal of Finance, 16(8), 8–28. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2022/v16i8/171372

References
  1. Ahlgren, N., & Antell, J. (2010). Stock market linkages and financial contagion: A cobreaking analysis. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 50(2), 157–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2009.12.004
  2. Ahmad, W., Bhanumurthy, N. R., & Sehgal, S. (2014). The Eurozone crisis and its contagion effects on the European stock markets. Studies in Economics and Finance, 31(3), 325–352. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-01-2014-0001
  3. Anagnostidis, P., Varsakelis, C., & Emmanouilides, C. J. (2016). Has the 2008 financial crisis affected stock market efficiency? The case of Eurozone. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 447, 116 –128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2015.12.017
  4. Antonakakis, N., & Vergos, K. (2013). Sovereign bond yield spillovers in the Eurozone during the financial and debt crisis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, 26, 258–272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2013.06.004
  5. Arezki, R., Candelon, B., & Sy, A. N. (2011). Sovereign rating news and financial markets spillovers: Evidence from the European debt crisis (WP/11/68). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455227112.001
  6. Baek, I.-M., & Jun, J. (2011). Testing contagion of the 1997–98 crisis in Asian stock markets with structural breaks and incubation periods. Journal of Asian Economics, 22(5), 356–368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2011.05.005
  7. Baele, L. (2004). Volatility spillover effects in European equity markets. Available at SSRN. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302851
  8. Bala, D. A., & Takimoto, T. (2017). Stock markets volatility spillovers during financial crises: A DCC-MGARCH with skewed-t density approach. Borsa Istanbul Review, 17(1), 25–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2017.02.002
  9. Barunik, J., & Vacha, L. (2013). Contagion among Central and Eastern European stock markets during the financial crisis. arXiv preprint arXiv:1309.0491. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1309.0491
  10. Bekaert, G., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., & Mehl, A. (2014). The global crisis and equity market contagion. The Journal of Finance, 69(6), 2597–2649. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12203
  11. Bernoth, K., & Erdogan, B. (2012). Sovereign bond yield spreads A time-varying coefficient approach. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(3), 639–656. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.10.006
  12. Bhanumurthy, N. R. (2009). Impact of global economic crisis on the Indian economy. China Report, 45(2), 163 – 174. https://doi.org/10.1177/000944550904500209
  13. Bonga-Bonga, L. (2018). Uncovering equity market contagion among BRICS countries: An application of the multivariate GARCH model. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 67, 36–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.04.009
  14. Brender, A., Pisani, F., & Gagna, E. (2012). The sovereign debt crisis. Placing a curb on growth. Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, Belgium.
  15. Büttner, D., & Hayo, B. (2011). Determinants of European stock market integration. Economic Systems, 35(4), 574 – 585. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2010.10.004
  16. Caporale, G. M., Rault, C., Sova, A. D., & Sova, R. (2015). Financial development and economic growth : Evidence from 10 new European Union members. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 20(1), 48 – 60. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1498
  17. Coulibaly, B., Sapriza, H., & Zlate, A. (2013). Financial frictions, trade credit, and the 2008–09 global financial crisis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 26, 25–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2012.08.006
  18. Dewandaru, G., Masih, R., & Masih, M. (2018). Unraveling the financial contagion in European stock markets during financial crises: Multi-timescale analysis. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(4), 859 – 880. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1266614
  19. Gallegati, M. (2012). A wavelet-based approach to test for financial market contagion. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 56(11), 3491–3497. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2010.11.003
  20. Gamba-Santamaria, S., Gomez-Gonzalez, J. E., Hurtado-Guarin, J. L., & Melo-Velandia, L. F. (2017). Stock market volatility spillovers: Evidence for Latin America. Finance Research Letters, 20, 207–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2016.10.001
  21. Gawade, S., Parab, N., & Reddy, Y. V. (2019). Interlinkages between Indian and global stock market returns: Evidence from G5 countries. Indian Journal of Finance, 13(6), 54–64. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2019/v13i6/144850
  22. Horta, P., Lagoa, S., & Martins, L. (2014). The impact of the 2008 and 2010 financial crises on the Hurst exponents of international stock markets: Implications for efficiency and contagion. International Review of Financial Analysis, 35, 140–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2014.08.002
  23. Horváth, R., Lyócsa, Š., & Baumöhl, E. (2018). Stock market contagion in Central and Eastern Europe : Unexpected volatility and extreme co-exceedance. The European Journal of Finance, 24(5), 391–412. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2017.1307773
  24. Jiang, Y., Yu, M., & Hashmi, S. M. (2017). The financial crisis and co-movement of global stock markets - A case of six major economies. Sustainability, 9(2), 260. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9020260
  25. Junior, L. S., & Franca, I. D. (2012). Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 391(1–2), 187–208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2011.07.023
  26. Kali, R., & Reyes, J. (2010). Financial contagion on the international trade network. Economic Inquiry, 48(4), 1072–1101. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2009.00249.x
  27. Kenourgios, D., & Samitas, A. (2011). Equity market integration in emerging Balkan markets. Research in International Business and Finance, 25(3), 296–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2011.02.004
  28. Kenourgios, D., Asteriou, D., & Samitas, A. (2013). Testing for asymmetric financial contagion: New evidence from the Asian crisis. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 10(2), 129–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2014.02.001
  29. Khanna, S., & Kumar, A. (2020). GARCH and TGARCH approach to information linkages. Indian Journal of Finance, 14(8–9), 35–51. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2020/v14i8-9/154947
  30. Kumar, A., & Khanna, S. (2018). GARCH - BEKK approach to volatility behavior and spillover: Evidence from India, China, Hong Kong, and Japan. Indian Journal of Finance, 12(4), 7–19. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2018/v12i4/122791
  31. Mohti, W., Dionísio, A., Vieira, I., & Ferreira, P. (2019). Financial contagion analysis in frontier markets: Evidence from the US subprime and the Eurozone debt crises. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 525, 1388–1398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.03.094
  32. Mollah, S., Quoreshi, A. S., & Zafirov, G. (2016). Equity market contagion during global financial and Eurozone crises: Evidence from a dynamic correlation analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 41, 151–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.12.010
  33. Nikkinen, J., Piljak, V., & Rothovius, T. (2020). Impact of the 2008–2009 financial crisis on the external and internal linkages of European frontier stock markets. Global Finance Journal, 46, Article 100481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2019.100481
  34. Niţoi, M., & Pochea, M. M. (2020). Time-varying dependence in European equity markets: A contagion and investor sentiment driven analysis. Economic Modelling, 86, 133–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.06.007
  35. Patel, R. J. (2017). Co-movement and integration among stock markets: A study of 14 countries. Indian Journal of Finance, 11(9), 53–66. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2017/v11i9/118089
  36. Perumandla, S., & Kurisetti, P. (2018). Time-varying correlations, causality, and volatility linkages of Indian commodity and equity markets: Evidence from DCC - GARCH. Indian Journal of Finance, 12(9), 21– 40. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2018/v12i9/131558
  37. Reboredo, J. C., Tiwari, A. K., & Albulescu, C. T. (2015). An analysis of dependence between Central and Eastern European stock markets. Economic Systems, 39(3), 474–490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.01.002
  38. Roy, R. P., & Roy, S. S. (2017). Financial contagion and volatility spillover: An exploration into Indian commodity derivative market. Economic Modelling, 67, 368–380. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.02.019
  39. Savva, C. S., & Aslanidis, N. (2010). Stock market integration between new EU member states and the Euro-zone, Empirical Economics, 39, 337–351. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-009-0306-6
  40. Sehgal, S., Pandey, P., & Deisting, F. (2018). Stock market integration dynamics and its determinants in the East Asian economic community region. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 16, 389–425. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-017-0090-7
  41. Seth, N., & Panda, L. (2018). Financial contagion: Review of empirical literature. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 10(1), 15 – 70. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-06-2017-0056
  42. Shogbuyi, A., & Steeley, J. M. (2017). The effect of quantitative easing on the variance and covariance of the UK and US equity markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 52, 281–291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2017.07.009
  43. Singh, A. K., & Shrivastav, R. K. (2018). Evaluating the impact of the global financial crisis on the stock markets of BRICS countries. Indian Journal of Finance, 12(7), 7–27. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2018/v12i7/129967
  44. Singh, A., & Kaur, P. (2015). Modelling dynamic volatility spillovers from the U.S. to the BRIC countries' stock markets during the subprime crisis. Indian Journal of Finance, 9(8), 45–55. http://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2015/v9i8/74562
  45. Syllignakis, M. N., & Kouretas, G. P. (2011). Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets. International Review of Economics & Finance, 20(4), 717–732. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2011.01.006
  46. Terazi, E., & Şenel, S. (2011). The effects of the global financial crisis on the central and eastern European Union countries. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(17), 186 – 192.
  47. Virk, N., & Javed, F. (2017). European equity market integration and joint relationship of conditional volatility and correlations. Journal of International Money and Finance, 71, 53–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.10.007
  48. Wang, G.-J., Xie, C., Lin, M., & Stanley, H. E. (2017). Stock market contagion during the global financial crisis: A multiscale approach. Finance Research Letters, 22, 163–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2016.12.025
  49. Wang, P., & Moore, T. (2012). The integration of the credit default swap markets during the US subprime crisis: Dynamic correlation analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2011.07.001
Editorial Scholar

Submit your Research to IJF

Submit your Manuscript → Author Guidelines