New IJF now accepts submissions exclusively via the Editorial Scholar portal — a dedicated submission & review system.
Go to Editorial Scholar →
Associated Management Consultants Pvt. Ltd. | COPE Member
Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE |
Indian Journal of Finance logo

Indian Journal of Finance

ISSN: 0973-8711 Frequency: Monthly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2007 Language: English
A publication of AMCPL
amcon.co.in
New Delhi, India
Indexed in: Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE Group II Google Scholar J-Gate NISCAIR Crossref

Original Article

Open Access Original Article

Impact of Key Macroeconomic Variables on Movement of the Indian Stock Market with Reference to BSE Sensex

Ravindra Tripathi1,  Anurag Bhadur Singh2,  Priyanka Tandon Singh3

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology, Allahabad, Uttar Pradesh

2 Research Associate, National Institute of Financial Management (An Autonomous Institute of Ministry of Finance, Government of India), Faridabad, Haryana

3 Research Scholar, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology, Allahabad, Uttar Pradesh

Volume 10
Issue 6
Pages 38–50
Year 2016
Received: Feb. 5, 2016 Accepted: May 5, 2016 Published: June 1, 2016
Abstract

The stock market is the barometer of the Indian economy. It is the vital system of the financial system of any economy. It helps in mobilizing the savings from different sectors. Many researchers have conducted studies to find out the relationship between the Indian stock market and key macro economic variables such as IIP, FDI, exchange rate, FII, gold price, oil prices, and so forth. In this research paper, an attempt was made to explore the relationship between the Indian stock market represented by BSE Sensex (SnX) and key macroeconomic variables : index of industrial production (IIP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and wholesale price index (WPI) of the Indian economy using the regression model. Quarterly data was collected from 2002-2003 to 2012-2013 for all variables like BSE Sensex, IIP, FDI, and WPI using secondary sources. The research is both descriptive and empirical in nature. The findings showed that IIP is a significant predictor of BSE Sensex ; whereas, FDI and WPI were not found to be a significant predictor of the BSE Sensex.

Keywords IIP (Index of Industrial Production) FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) WPI (Wholesale Price Index) SnX (Sensex)
How to Cite

Ravindra Tripathi, Anurag Bhadur Singh, Priyanka Tandon Singh (2016). Impact of Key Macroeconomic Variables on Movement of the Indian Stock Market with Reference to BSE Sensex. Indian Journal of Finance, 10(6), 38–50. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2016/v10i6/94878

References
  1. Abu - Libdeh, H., & Harasheh, M. (2011). Testing for correlation and causality relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables. The case of Palestine Securities Exchange. International Review of Business Research Papers , 7 (5), 141- 154.
  2. Agarwal, T., Singh, A. B., & Tandon, P. (2014). Mutual fund investment in India: A study of linear relationship with sensex. Business Analysts-Journal of Sri Ram College of Commerce, 34 (2), 139-148.
  3. Aggarwal, S., Singla, A., & Aggarwal, R.(2012). Foreign direct investment in India. International Journal of Computational Engineering and Management, 15 (2), 93-105
  4. Ahmad, I., & Sinha, J. (2015). A study on relationship between macro-economic variables and stock market performance with reference to BSE-Sensex. International Journal of Applied Research, 2 (2), 10-13.
  5. Cagli, E. C., Halac, U., & Taskin, D. (2010). Testing long-run relationship between stock market and macroeconomic variables in the presence of structural breaks the Turkish case. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics , Issue 48, 49-60.
  6. Centre Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt Ltd. (CMIE). (n.d.). Sector wise FDI inflows. Retrieved from www.cmie.com
  7. Chapter 3. Literature Review. (n.d.). Retrieved from <a href=https://theses.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-05072002-000731/unrestricted/ch3-LitReview.pdf target="_blank">https://theses.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-05072002-000731/unrestricted/ch3-LitReview.pdf</a>
  8. Dadhich, G., Chotia, V., & Chaudhary, O. (2015). Impact of foreign institutional investments on stock market volatility in India. Indian Journal of Finance, 9 (10), 22-35. DOI: 10.17010/ijf/2015/v9i10/79561
  9. De, S., & Chakarborty, T. (2015). Foreign portfolio investment and stock market volatility in India. Indian Journal of Finance, 9 (1), 49-59. DOI: 10.17010/ijf/2015/v9i1/71535
  10. Deb, S. G., & Mukherjee, J. (2008). Does stock market development cause economic growth? A time series analysis for Indian economy. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics , 21, 142-149.
  11. Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion Board. (2015). Fact sheet on foreign direct investment. Retrieved from <a href=http://dipp.nic.in/English/Publications/FDI_Statistics/2015/india_FDI_June2015.pdf target="_blank">http://dipp.nic.in/English/Publications/FDI_Statistics/2015/india_FDI_June2015.pdf</a>
  12. Hsing, Y. (2011a). Effects of macroeconomic variables on the stock market : The case of the Czech Republic. Theoretical and Applied Economics , 18 (7), 53-64.
  13. Hsing, Y. (2011b). Macroeconomic variables and the stock market : The case of Croatia. Economic Research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 24 (4), 41-50. DOI:10.1080/1331677X.2011.11517479
  14. Hsing, Y. (2011c). Impacts of macroeconomic variables on the U.S. stock market index and policy implications. Economic Bulletin, 31 (1), 883-892.
  15. Hsing, Y. (2011e). Macro economic determinants of stock market index and policy implications : The case of Central European country. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics , 4 (7), 1-11.
  16. Hsing, Y. (2014d). The stock market and macro economic factors in Romania and policy implications. Trends in Economics , 1 (1), 1-7.
  17. Jain, M., Meena, P. L., & Mathur, T. N. (2012). Impact of foreign institutional investment on stock market with special reference to BSE : A study of last one decade. Asian Journal of Research in Banking and Finance , 2 (4), 31-47.
  18. Joshi, V. K., & Saxena, R. (2011). Analytical study of impact of FII on Indian stock market with special reference to BSE sensex. Management Insight, 7 (2), 40-55.
  19. Kapoor, S., & Sachana, R. (2015). Impact of FDI & FII on Indian stock markets. International Journal of Research in Finance and Marketing, 5 (4), 1- 9.
  20. Naik, K. P. (2013). Does stock market respond to economic fundamentals? Time-series analysis from Indian data. Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research , 3 (1), 34-50.
  21. OECD. (2008). OECD Benchmark definition of foreign direct investment. Retrieved from <a href=http://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/investmentstatisticsandanalysis/40193734.pdf target="_blank">http://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/investmentstatisticsandanalysis/40193734.pdf</a>
  22. OECD. (n.d.). Glossary of statistical terms : Direct investor. Retrieved from <a href=https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=625 target="_blank">https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=625</a>
  23. Padhan, P. C. (2007). The nexus between stock market and economic activity: An empirical analysis for India. International Journal of Social Economics, 34 (10), 741 - 753.
  24. Pal, K., & Mittal, R. (2011). Impact of macroeconomic indicators on Indian capital markets. The Journal of Risk Finance, 12 (2), 84 - 97. DOI : <a href=http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/15265941111112811 target="_blank">http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/15265941111112811</a>
  25. Pandya, I. H. (2014). Impact of the Union Budget on the Indian stock market. Indian Journal of Finance, 8 (3), 44-57. DOI: 10.17010/ijf/2014/v8i3/71963
  26. Parmar, C. (2013). Empirical relationship among various macroeconomics variables on Indian stock market. International Journal of Advance Research in Computer Science and Management Studies , 1 (6), 190-197.
  27. Patel, S. (2012). The effect of macro-economic determinants on the performance of Indian stock market. MNIMS Management Review , 22, 117-127.
  28. Rafay, A., Naz, F., & Rubab, S. (2014). Causal relationship between macroeconomic variables: Evidence from developing economy. Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business Research , 3 (2), 88-99.
  29. Reserve Bank of India. (2015a). Handbook of statistics on Indian economy. Retrieved from <a href=https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=16597 target="_blank">https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=16597</a>
  30. Reserve Bank of India. (2015b). Handbook of statistics on Indian economy. Retrieved from <a href=https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=16470 target="_blank">https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=16470</a>
  31. Reserve Bank of India. (2015c). Handbook of statistics on Indian economy. Retrieved from <a href=https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=16481 target="_blank">https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=16481</a>
  32. Sabunwala, Z. (2012). A study of the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock price movements for the period from 1993- 2010. International Journal of Research in Commerce, Economics & Management , 2 (6), 107-110.
  33. Seeresha, P. B. (2013). Effect of select macro economic on stock returns in India. International Journal of Marketing, Financial Services & Management Research , 2 (6), 197-209.
  34. Singh, S., Tripathi, L. K., & Parashar, A. (2013). A study of impact of macro economic variables on performance of Nifty. Asian Journal of Research In Business Economics and Management , 3 (10), 205-216.
  35. Singh, S., Triptahi, L. K., & Lalwani, K. (2012). An empirical study of impact of exchange rate and Inflation rate on performance of BSE Sensex. Spectrum: A Journal of Multidisciplinary Research , 1 (3), 20-31.
  36. Srivastava, A. (2013). Influence of FII flows on Indian stock market. GYANPRATHA – ACCMAN Journal of Management, 5 (1), 1-31.
Editorial Scholar

Submit your Research to IJF

Submit your Manuscript → Author Guidelines