New IJF now accepts submissions exclusively via the Editorial Scholar portal — a dedicated submission & review system.
Go to Editorial Scholar →
Associated Management Consultants Pvt. Ltd. | COPE Member
Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE |
Indian Journal of Finance logo

Indian Journal of Finance

ISSN: 0973-8711 Frequency: Monthly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2007 Language: English
A publication of AMCPL
amcon.co.in
New Delhi, India
Indexed in: Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE Group II Google Scholar J-Gate NISCAIR Crossref

Original Article

Open Access Original Article

Indian Stock Market Volatility and Economic Fundamentals : MIDAS Approach

Ashwani1,  Ved Pal Sheera2

1 Assistant Professor (Economics), Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, National Institute of Technology, Kurukshetra - 136 119, Haryana

2 Professor, Haryana School of Business, Guru Jambheshwar University of Science & Technology, Hisar - 125 001, Haryana

Volume 12
Issue 8
Pages 7–21
Year 2018
Received: May 8, 2018 Accepted: July 18, 2018 Published: Aug. 1, 2018
Abstract

Since the onset of endogenous growth theory, financial development has remained a centre place among policymakers and academicians for its multifold roles in accumulation of productive assets in an economy. Parallelly, the capital market has also provided advantages to the stakeholders through diversification of risk, amelioration of liquidity risk, discovery of asset prices, etc. In this regard, numerous studies have tried to capture the dynamics of stock markets across countries and within countries. The literature mentioned that the macroeconomic fundamentals have varying roles in predicting the behaviour of stock markets. Most of the existing literature utilized the data set of comparable frequencies that is maximally available at the monthly level. However, the extent of volatility measurement of stock markets using high frequency data as of stock markets along with low frequency data as of macroeconomic indicators was overlooked in the Indian stock market. In this background, the present study took motivation to capture the roles of macroeconomic variables in explaining the volatility of the Indian stock market using the recently developed MIDAS GARCH approach. The study observed that macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, money supply, treasury bills rate, along with the controlling variables of net foreign institutional investment and stock turnover ratio had predictable capacity for stock market volatility.

Keywords macroeconomic indicators stock market volatility MIDAS GARCH G120 G140 G170
How to Cite

Ashwani, Ved Pal Sheera (2018). Indian Stock Market Volatility and Economic Fundamentals : MIDAS Approach. Indian Journal of Finance, 12(8), 7–21. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2018/v12i8/130741

References
  1. Ahmed, S. (2008). Aggregate economic variables and stock markets in India. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 14 (99), 141-164.
  2. Aiyar, S. S. A. (2014, January 29). Rupee slide to 65/dollar and shrinking CAD will boost India's exports and growth. The Economic Times. Retrieved from <a href=https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/swaminathan-s-a-aiyar/rupee-slide-to-65/dollar-and-shrinking-cad-will-boost-indias-exports-and-growth/articleshow/29513837.cms target="_blank">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/swaminathan-s-a-aiyar/rupee-slide-to-65/dollar-and-shrinking-cad-will-boost-indias-exports-and-growth/articleshow/29513837.cms </a>
  3. Andreou, E., Ghysels, E., & Kourtellos, A. (2013). Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how ? Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 31 (2), 240 - 251.
  4. Boudoukh, J., & Richardson, M. (1993). Stock returns and inflation : A long-horizon perspective. American Economic Review, 83 (5), 1346 - 1355.
  5. Bushee, R., & Noe, C. (2000). Disclosure quality, institutional investors, and stock return volatility. Journal of Accounting Research, 38 (1), 171 - 202.
  6. Campbell, J. Y., Lettau, M., Malkiel, B. G., & Xu, Y. (2001). Have individual stocks become more volatile ? An empirical exploration of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Finance, 56 (1), 1- 43.
  7. Carriero, A., Clark, T. E., & Marcellino, M. (2015). Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 178 (4), 837 - 862.
  8. Chowdhury, P. R., & Anuradha (2018). Impact of exchange rate fluctuation on stock market volatility - A study to predict the economic scenario in India. International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 118 (18), 4309 - 4316.
  9. David, A., & Veronesi, P. (2004). Inflation and earnings uncertainty and volatility forecasts. Retrieved from <a href=http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/workingpapers/pdf/2004-02-001.pdf target="_blank">http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/workingpapers/pdf/2004-02-001.pdf</a>
  10. De, S., & Chakraborty, T. (2015). Foreign portfolio investment and stock market volatility in India. Indian Journal of Finance, 9(1), 49-59. doi:10.17010/ijf/2015/v9i1/71535
  11. El-Wassal, A. K. (2005). Understanding the growth in emerging stock markets. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 4 (3), 227 - 261.
  12. Engle, R. F., & Rangel, J. G. (2008). The Spline - GARCH model for low frequency volatility and its global macroeconomic causes. Review of Financial Studies, 21(3), 1187 - 1222.
  13. Engle, R. F., Ghysels, E., & Sohn, B. (2013). Stock market volatility and macroeconomic fundamentals. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95 (3), 776 - 797.
  14. Fama, E. R. (1981). Stock returns, real activity, inflation and money. American Economic Review, 71 (4), 545 - 565.
  15. Fama, E., & French, K. (1989). Business conditions and expected returns on stock and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 25 (1), 23 - 49.
  16. Garcia, V. F., & Liu, L. (1999). Macroeconomic determinants of stock market development. Journal of Applied Economics, 2 (1), 29 - 59.
  17. Ghysels, E., Sinko, A., & Valkanov, R. (2007). Midas regressions: Further results and new directions. Econometric Reviews, 26 (1), 53 - 90.
  18. Ghysels, E., & Valkanov, R. (2012). Forecasting volatility with MIDAS. In L. Bauwens, C. Hafner, & S. Laurent (eds.), Handbook of volatility models and their applications (pp. 383 - 401). DOI: 10.1002/9781118272039.ch16
  19. Ghysels, E., Santa - Clara, P., & Valkanov, R. (2004). The MIDAS touch: Mixed data sampling regression models (CIRANO Working Paper 2004s-20). Retrieved from <a href=http://www.cirano.qc.ca/pdf/publication/2004s-20.pdf target="_blank">http://www.cirano.qc.ca/pdf/publication/2004s-20.pdf </a>
  20. Giri, A.K., & Joshi, P. (2017). The impact of macroeconomic indicators on Indian stock prices: An empirical analysis. Studies in Business and Economics, 12 (1), 61-78. DOI 10.1515/sbe-2017-0005
  21. Gurloveleen, K., & Bhatia, B. S. (2015). An impact of macroeconomic variables on the functioning of Indian stock market : A study of manufacturing firms of BSE 500. Journal of Stock and Forex Trading, 5 (1), 1-7. doi:10.4172/2168-9458.1000160
  22. Hamilton, J., & Lin, G. (1996). Stock market volatility and the business cycle. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(5), 573 - 593.
  23. Harvey, C. R. (1995a). The risk exposure of emerging equity markets. The World Bank Economic Review, 9 (1), 19 - 50.
  24. Harvey, C. R. (1995b). Predictable risk and returns in emerging markets. Review of Financial Studies, 8 (3), 773 - 816.
  25. Hossain, S. , & Abedin, T. (2017). Socio-economy and stock market volatility. Journal of Economic & Financial Studies, 5 (4), 1-11.
  26. Humpe, A. & Macmillan, P. (2009). Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market movements ? A comparison of the U.S. and Japan. Applied Financial Economics, 19 (2), 111-119.
  27. Inegbedion, H. E. (2012). Macroeconomic determinants of stock price changes: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Indian Journal of Finance, 6 (2), 19 - 23.
  28. Kadir, H. B. A., Selamat, Z., Masuga, T., & Taudi, R. (2011). Predictability power of interest rate and exchange rate volatility on stock market return and volatility: Evidence from Bursa Malaysia. 2011 International Conference on Economics and Finance Research IPEDR, Vol.4, Singapore. Retrieved from <a href=http://www.ipedr.com/vol4/38-F00079.pdf target="_blank">http://www.ipedr.com/vol4/38-F00079.pdf</a>
  29. Kolari, J. W., & Anari, A. (2001). Stock prices and inflation. Journal of Financial Research, 24 (4), 587 - 602.
  30. Kumari, J., & Mahakud, J. (2015). Relationship between conditional volatility of domestic macroeconomic factors and conditional stock market volatility : Some further evidence from India. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 22(1), 87-111. doi:10.1007/s10690-014-9194-7
  31. Kuzin, V., Marcellino, M., & Schumacher, C. (2013). Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting GDP with many predictors : Empirical evidence for six industrialized countries. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 28 (3), 392- 411.
  32. Laopodis, N. T., & Papastamou, A. (2016). Dynamic interactions between stock markets and the real economy: Evidence from emerging markets. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 11 (4), 715 - 746. DOI : https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-12-2015-0253
  33. Malkiel, B. G. (1979). The capital formation problem in the United States. Journal of Finance, 34 (2), 291 - 306.
  34. Marone, H. (2003). Small African stock markets - The case of the Lusaka stock exchange (IMF Working Paper WP/03/6). Retrieved from <a href=https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp0306.pdf target="_blank">https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2003/wp0306.pdf </a>
  35. Megaravalli, A. V., & Sampagnaro, G. (2018). Macroeconomic indicators and their impact on stock markets in ASIAN 3 : A pooled mean group approach. CogentEconomics & Finance, 6(1), 1-14. DOI : https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1432450
  36. Mishra, S., & Singh, H. (2012). Do macroeconomic variables explain stock market returns ? Evidence using a semi parametric approach. Journal of Asset Management, 13 (2), 115 -127.
  37. Mohanamani, P., & Sivagnanasithi, T. (2014). Indian stock market and aggregate macroeconomic variables : Time series analysis. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 3 (6), 68 - 74.
  38. Muthike, S. W., & Sakwa, M. M. (2011). Can macroeconomic indicators be used as predictors of the stock exchange index trends ? A look at the Nairobi Stock Exchange. In JKUAT Scientific Conference Proceedings. Retrieved from <a href=http://elearning.jkuat.ac.ke/journals/ojs/index.php/jscp/article/view/731 target="_blank">http://elearning.jkuat.ac.ke/journals/ojs/index.php/jscp/article/view/731</a>
  39. Oseni, I. O., & Nwosa, P. I. (2011). Stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables volatility in Nigeria : An exponential GARCH approach. Journal of Economic and Sustainable Development, 2(10), 43 - 53.
  40. Patra, T., & Poshakwale, S. (2006). Economic variables and stock market returns : Evidence from the Athens stock exchange. Applied Financial Economics, 16 (13), 993 - 1005.
  41. Poon W.C., & Tong G.K. (2010). Predictive power of output growth, inflation and interest rate on stock return and volatility : A comparison. International Journal of Management Studies, 17 (Special Issue), 55 - 74.
  42. Reserve Bank of India. (Various Years). RBI handbook of statistics on Indian economy (various issues). Mumbai : Reserve Bank of India.
  43. Roma, A., & Schlitzer, G. (1996). The determinants of Italian stock market returns : Some empirical evidence. Economic Notes, 25 (3), 515 - 540.
  44. Rozeff, M. (1974). Money and stock prices, market efficiency, and the lag in the effect of monetary policy. Journal of Financial Economics, 1 (3), 245-302.
  45. Schorfheide, F., Song, D., & Yaron, A. (2014). Identifying long-run risks: A Bayesian mixed frequency approach (Unpublished Working Paper). University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
  46. Schwert, G.W. (1989). Why does stock market volatility change over time ? The Journal of Finance, 44 (5), 1115 - 1153.
  47. Tripathi, R., Singh A. B., & Singh P.T. (2016). Impact of key macroeconomic variables on movement of the Indian stock market with reference to BSE Sensex. Indian Journal of Finance, 10 (6), 38 - 50. doi:10.17010/ijf/2016/v10i6/94878
  48. Yartey, C. A. (2008). Determinants of stock market development in emerging economies : Is South Africa different ? (IMF Working Paper No. 08/32). Retrieved from <a href=https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/ target="_blank">https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/</a>
  49. Zakaria, Z., & Shamsuddin, S. (2012). Empirical evidence on the relationship between stock market volatility and macroeconomics volatility in Malaysia. Journal of Business Studies Quarterly, 4 (2), 61 - 71.
Editorial Scholar

Submit your Research to IJF

Submit your Manuscript → Author Guidelines