New IJF now accepts submissions exclusively via the Editorial Scholar portal — a dedicated submission & review system.
Go to Editorial Scholar →
Associated Management Consultants Pvt. Ltd. | COPE Member
Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE |
Indian Journal of Finance logo

Indian Journal of Finance

ISSN: 0973-8711 Frequency: Monthly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2007 Language: English
A publication of AMCPL
amcon.co.in
New Delhi, India
Indexed in: Scopus Q2 UGC-CARE Group II Google Scholar J-Gate NISCAIR Crossref

Original Article

Open Access Original Article

Macroeconomic Determinants of Gold Prices : A Bounds Testing Approach

Arwinder Singh1,  Navjot Kaur2

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Business Management and Commerce, Guru Nanak Dev University (GNDU - RC), Gurdaspur, Punjab

2 Research Scholar, University School of Financial Studies, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, Punjab

Volume 14
Issue 2
Pages 21–33
Year 2020
Received: Aug. 29, 2019 Accepted: Jan. 28, 2020 Published: Feb. 29, 2020
Abstract

Despite the demise of gold as a long-standing anchor in the international monetary system, it keeps on alluring its producers, consumers, investors, and speculators over the globe. India is the largest consumer and importer of gold in the world. The investment demand for gold is ascending in India since it is considered as a safe haven. Notwithstanding, high instability in gold prices brings up an issue on its supporting properties. Thus, an attempt was made to identify the macroeconomic determinants of gold prices in India. The study was set to examine the long run as well as short run relationship between gold prices and some macroeconomic variables like BSE Sensex, wholesale price index (WPI), and index of industrial production (IIP) as a proxy of gross domestic product, interest rates, Indian rupee - U.S. dollar exchange rate, and gold reserves of the country. Using the monthly data from April 1995 – March 2018, the relationship was explored empirically by using the autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model. The ARDL results suggested that the long run cointegration between the prices of gold and the macroeconomic variables during the period of the study and gold reserves of RBI, BSE Sensex, WPI, exchange rate, and IIP were found to be significantly affecting the gold prices. However, interest rates were found to be statistically insignificant during the period of the study. The error correction term, which was negative and highly significant, confirmed the convergence to the long run equilibrium. The results of this study have important implications for the Indian economy and will be helpful for policy formulation.

Keywords ARDL Cointegration Gold India Macroeconomic dDeterminants. JEL Classification
How to Cite

Arwinder Singh, Navjot Kaur (2020). Macroeconomic Determinants of Gold Prices : A Bounds Testing Approach. Indian Journal of Finance, 14(2), 21–33. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2020/v14i2/150554

References
  1. Allese, K. (2008). Understanding the development and influences of the price of gold (Unpublished BA Thesis). Business International University, School of Business, Audentes.
  2. Astrow, A. (2012). Gold and the international monetary system: A report by the Chatham House Gold Taskforce. Chatham House. Retrieved from <a href=https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/International%20Economics/r021 2gold.pdf target="_blank">https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/International%20Economics/r021 2gold.pdf</a>
  3. Batten, J. A., Ciner, C., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets. Resources Policy, 35(2), 65-71.
  4. Baur, D.G., & Lucey, B.M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. The Financial Review, 45(2), 217-229.
  5. Blose, L. E. (2010). Gold prices, cost of carry, and expected inflation. Journal of Economics and Business, 62(1), 35-47.
  6. Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149-192.
  7. Capie, F., Mills, T. C., & Wood, G. (2005). Gold as a hedge against the dollar. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 15(4), 343-352.
  8. Charemza, W. W., & Deadman, D. F. (1992). New directions in econometric practice (2nd ed.). Aldershot : Edward Elgar Publishing.
  9. Chua, J., & Woodward, R. (1982). Gold as an inflation hedge: A comparative study of six major industrial countries. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 9(2), 191-197.
  10. Das, C. (2010). A critical study on portfolio optimization of physical gold and its derivatives as an ideal investment choice. Indian Journal of Finance, 4(12), 46-53.
  11. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74 (366a), 427-431. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531</a>
  12. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55(2), 251-276.
  13. FICCI & A. T. Kearney. (2013). All that glitters is gold : India jewellery review 2013. Retrieved from <a href=http://ficci.in/spdocument/20332/India-Jewellery-Review-2013.pdf target="_blank">http://ficci.in/spdocument/20332/India-Jewellery-Review-2013.pdf</a>
  14. Gangopadhyay, K., Jangir, A., & Sensarma, R. (2016). Forecasting the price of gold: An error correction approach IIMB Management Review, 28(1), 6-12.
  15. Gaur, A., & Bansal, M. (2010). A comparative study of gold price movements in Indian and global markets. Indian Journal of Finance, 4(2), 32-37.
  16. Ghosh, D., Levin, E.J., Macmillan, P., & Wright, R.E. (2004). Gold as an inflation hedge ? Studies in Economics and Finance, 22(1), 1-25.
  17. Ghouse, G., Khan, S. A., & Rehman, A. U. (2018). ARDL model as a remedy for spurious regression : Problems, performance and prospectus (MPRA Paper 83973). University Library of Munich, Germany. Retrieved from <a href=https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83973/1/MPRA_paper_83973.pdf target="_blank">https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83973/1/MPRA_paper_83973.pdf</a>
  18. Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration - with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
  19. Joshi, D. J. (2011). Impact of dollar fluctuation on gold and crude oil prices. Indian Journal of Finance, 5(5), 3-12.
  20. Kannan, R., & Dhal, S. (2008). India's demand for gold : Some issues for economic development and macroeconomic policy. Indian Journal of Economics and Business, 7(1), 107-128.
  21. Lampinen, A. (2007). Gold investments and short- and long-run price determinants of the price of gold (Unpublished Master’s Thesis). Lappeenranta University of Technology, School of Business, Finland.
  22. Lawrence, C. (2003). Why is gold different from other assets ? An empirical investigation (World Gold Council Research Paper). Retrieved from <a href=http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/colin_lawrence_report.pdf target="_blank">http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/colin_lawrence_report.pdf</a>
  23. Levin, E. J., & Wright, R. E. (2006). Short-run and long-run determinants of the price of gold (Paper No. 32). World Gold Council. Retrieved from<a href=https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/7215/6/strathprints007215.pdf target="_blank">https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/7215/6/strathprints007215.pdf </a>
  24. Michaud, R., Michaud, R., & Pulvermacher, K. (2006). Gold as a strategic asset (World Gold Council Report).
  25. Retrieved from <a href=https://www.newfrontieradvisors.com/media/1198/gold-as-a-strategic-asset.pdf target="_blank">https://www.newfrontieradvisors.com/media/1198/gold-as-a-strategic-asset.pdf</a>
  26. Mishra, A. (2019). Foreign exchange, gold, and real estate markets in India: An analysis of return volatility and transmission. Indian Journal of Finance, 13(7), 50-64. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2019/v13i7/145535 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2019/v13i7/145535</a>
  27. Panda, R., & Sethi, M. (2016). Gold as an investment option in India: Myth and reality. Indian Journal of Finance, 10(5), 7-21. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2016/v10i5/92930 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2016/v10i5/92930</a>
  28. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  29. Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  30. Reddy, Y.V. (1996). Gold in the Indian economic system. New Delhi : World Gold Council.
  31. Shakil, M. H., Mustapha, I. M., Tasnia, M., & Saiti, B. (2018). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven ? An application of ARDL approach. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 23(44), 60-76. <a href=https://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-03-2017-0052 target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-03-2017-0052</a>
  32. Trivedi, P., & Behera, S. R. (2012). The macroeconomic determinants gold prices in India: An ARDL approach. Journal of International Economics, 3(2), 4-26.
  33. Vaidyanathan, A. (1999). Consumption of gold in India - Trends and determinants. Economic and Political Weekly, 34(8), 471– 476.
  34. Wang, L. (2012). Investment in gold-An empirical study of the gold return from 90s to 21st (Unpublished Master Thesis). Applied Economics and Finance, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark.
  35. World Gold Council. (2008). Gold demand trends Q4 and full year 2007. Retrieved from <a href=https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q4-and-full-year-2007 target="_blank">https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q4-and-full-year-2007</a>
  36. World Gold Council. (2018). Gold demand trends full year 2017. Retrieved from <a href=https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2017 target="_blank">https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2017</a>
Editorial Scholar

Submit your Research to IJF

Submit your Manuscript → Author Guidelines