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Indian Journal of Finance

ISSN: 0973-8711 Frequency: Monthly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2007 Language: English
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Original Article

Open Access Original Article

Reconnoitering Price Discovery and Market Efficiency Process Among Indian HRITHIK Stocks Using VAR Causality and VECM Tests

Nupur Gupta1,  Yash Dalal2

1 Associate Professor (Accounting & Finance Area), Jaipuria Institute of Management, Indore, Dakachaya, Indore Dewas Highway, Near Shipra Naka, Indore - 453 771 Madhya Pradesh

2 Associate, Sanat M Dalal Securities Pvt. Ltd., 1211, BSE Building, Dalal Street, Mumbai - 400 001, Maharashtra

Volume 16
Issue 2
Pages 37–50
Year 2022
Received: May 15, 2021 Accepted: Jan. 30, 2022 Published: Feb. 14, 2022
Abstract

The purpose of this paper was to ascertain the impact of futures prices on market efficiency and price discovery in India in HRITHIK stocks from 2017 – 2020. The paper investigated the impact of futures prices on market efficiency and price discovery in India in HRITHIK stocks from 2017 – 2020. The current study comprised the daily near-month futures and daily spot closing prices of the HRITHIK stocks from January 1, 2017 – December 31, 2020, including the COVID-19 pandemic period. The paper used the vector autoregression (VAR) Engel Granger causality test to test the short-run equilibrium between spot and futures prices and the vector error correction model (VECM) to test for long-run equilibrium. A bi-directional relationship was found among six stocks out of the seven HRITHIK stocks. This confirmed the causal relationship that futures prices have on the spot prices. The VAR Engel Granger causality test indicated that the spot market narrowly led the futures despite a bi-directional flow of information. The results from the VECM model proved that the futures market acted as the dominant market in the long - run. Usually, researchers have leveraged sector-wise stocks to provide insights into the futures market’s function in price discovery. For the first time, HRITHIK stocks were analyzed to examine the cause-and-effect relationship for individual stocks in India’s futures and spot markets. The study considered the pre-COVID 19 and the post-COVID 19 periods and investigated the impact of the pandemic on these stocks. The research used daily closing prices of HRITHIK stocks; however, intraday data could be more conclusive and accurate in revealing the dominant market.

Keywords Futures Market Price Discovery Market Microstructure Vector Autoregression Engel Granger Causality Vector Error Correction Model
How to Cite

Nupur Gupta, Yash Dalal (2022). Reconnoitering Price Discovery and Market Efficiency Process Among Indian HRITHIK Stocks Using VAR Causality and VECM Tests. Indian Journal of Finance, 16(2), 37–50. https://doi.org/10.17010/ijf/2022/v16i2/162434

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