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Indian Journal of Finance

ISSN: 0973-8711 Frequency: Monthly Peer Review: Double-blind Published since: 2007 Language: English
A publication of AMCPL
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New Delhi, India
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Original Article

Open Access Original Article

Stochastic Volatility Model for Indian Security Indices: VaR Estimation and Backtesting

Atanu Das1,  Pramatha Nath Basu2,  Tapan Kumar Ghosal3

1 Assistant Professor, Department of CSE/IT, Netaji Subhash Engineering College, Kolkata

2 Professor, School of Education Technology, Jadavpur University, Kolkata

3 Professor, Department of Electrical Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata

Volume 3
Issue 9
Pages 43–47
Year 2009
Published: Sept. 1, 2009
Abstract

Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation through volatility analysis is a regulatory requirement. Many asset management companies and bourses tend to use EWMA and GARCH based techniques towards this. This paper compares the predictive power of Stochastic Volatility Model (SVM) and Kalman Filter (KF) based approach vis-à-vis EWMA and GARCH based approaches with data from Indian security indices. A Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) based on KF is used for estimation of parameters for the underlying state space SVM. It is found that, with a representative data set, VaR backtesting result from the SVM significantly outperforms the traditionally recommended EWMA based techniques.

How to Cite

Atanu Das, Pramatha Nath Basu, Tapan Kumar Ghosal (2009). Stochastic Volatility Model for Indian Security Indices: VaR Estimation and Backtesting. Indian Journal of Finance, 3(9), 43–47.

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